Carbon Emission Risk and Governance

作     者：Lu Jiang Xiaokang Hu Gangfeng Zhang Yanqiang Chen Honglin Zhong Peijun Shi Lu Jiang;Xiaokang Hu;Gangfeng Zhang;Yanqiang Chen;Honglin Zhong;Peijun Shi

作者机构：Academy of Plateau Science and SustainabilityPeople’s Government of Qinghai Province and Beijing Normal UniversityXining 810016China State Key Laboratory of Surface Processes and Resource EcologyBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency ManagementMinistry of Emergency Management and Ministry of EducationBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Institute of Blue and Green DevelopmentWeihai Institute of Interdisciplinary ResearchShandong UniversityWeihai 264209China 

出 版 物：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 (国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2022年第13卷第2期

页      面：249-260页

核心收录：

学科分类：12[管理学] 1204[管理学-公共管理] 083305[工学-城乡生态环境与基础设施规划] 08[工学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0833[工学-城乡规划学] 

基　　金：supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(Grant No.2019QZKK0606) the Natural Science Foundation of Qinghai Province(Grant No.2022-ZJ-937Q) the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42001130) the Special Project for Transformation of Scientific and Technological Achievements in Qinghai Province:Qinghai National Clean Energy Industry Highland Construction Resource Dynamic Guarantee and Ecological Environment“Trade-Off”Evaluation Technology Research and Development Project the Program of Introducing Talent to Universities(111 Project,Grant No.BP0820003) 

主　　题：Carbon emission risks Carbon neutrality Low-carbon economy Risk governance Vulnerability coefficient 

摘      要：Within the hazard and disaster risk research field, explicitly treating carbon emissions as a hazard remains rather nascent. Applying hazard and disaster risk research perspectives to seek new insights on integrated mitigation and adaptation approaches and policy measures is equally elusive. Since China’s pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the ‘‘dual carbon goals of carbon emission peaking and neutrality have stimulated nationwide attention, research, and policies and action *** to ensure that the transition pathways are on track and well-contextualized is one of the crucial challenges for policymakers and practitioners. This article examines the‘‘risks of missing the carbon neutrality goal at a regional scale in China, denoted as Carbon Emission Risk(CER).Carbon emissions(CE) as hazard, combined with the human socioeconomic system as exposure and human living environment, constitute the regional carbon emission environmental risk system. The ‘‘risks of missing(or achieving) the carbon neutrality target for any region at any time, the article argues, is essentially determined by the ratio of CE to carbon absorption(CA, for uptake and removal). These variables are modified by a broadly defined ‘‘vulnerability coefficient(Cv) that embodies both the potential for changes(decreasing CE and increasing CA), and the uncertainties of measuring CE and CA. Thus,the ratio of CE to CA is a measure of reality at any moment of time, whereas Cv indicates the overall propensity or capacity for moving the CE/CA ratio towards 1, that is,realizing carbon neutrality. Based on our calculation, CER at the provincial level in eastern China is higher than in western China. The article also calls for strengthening CER research and summarizes key measures for carbon emission risk governance.