Detection and Attribution of Changes in Summer Compound Hot and Dry Events over Northeastern China with CMIP6 Models

作     者：Wei LI Zhihong JIANG Laurent ZXLI Jing-Jia LUO Panmao ZHAI Wei LI;Zhihong JIANG;Laurent Z.X.LI;Jing-Jia LUO;Panmao ZHAI

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Laboratory of Severe WeatherFujian Institute of Meteorological SciencesFuzhou 350001China Laboratoire de Météorologie DynamiqueCentre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueSorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75252France State Key Laboratory of Severe WeatherChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Meteorological Research》 (气象学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2022年第36卷第1期

页      面：37-48页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1507704,2017YFA0603804) National Natural Science Foundation of China(41905078)。 

主　　题：compound hot and dry event(CHDE) detection and attribution northeastern China future projection 

摘      要：Northeastern China has experienced a significant increase in summer compound hot and dry events(CHDEs),posing a threat to local agricultural production and sustainable development.This study investigates the detectable anthropogenic signal in the long-term trend of CHDE and quantifies the contribution of different external forcings.A probability-based index(PI)is constructed through the joint probability distribution to measure the severity of CHDE,with lower values representing more severe cases.Response of CHDE to external forcing was assessed with simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6).The results show a significant increase in the severity of CHDE over northeastern China during the past decades.The trend of regional averaged PI is-0.28(90%confidence interval:-0.43 to-0.13)per 54 yr and it is well reproduced in the historical forcing simulations.The attribution method of optimal fingerprinting was firstly applied to a two-signal configuration with anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing;the anthropogenic impact was robustly detected and it explains most of the observed trend of PI.Similarly,three-signal analysis further demonstrated that the anthropogenic greenhouse gases dominantly contribute to the observed change,while the anthropogenic aerosol and natural forcing have almost no contribution to the observed changes.For a compound event concurrently exceeding the 95 th percentile of surface air temperature and precipitation reversal in the current period,its likelihood exhibits little change at 1.5℃global warming,but almost doubled at 2.0℃global warming.