Modeling the transmission of COVID-19 in the US e A case study
作者机构：Department of MathematicsUniversity of FloridaGainesvilleFL32611USA Department of MathematicsUniversity of Tennessee at ChattanoogaChattanoogaTN37403USA
出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)
年 卷 期：2021年第6卷第1期
页 面：195-211页
学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 10[医学]
主 题：COVID-19 transmission Mathematical modeling Data fitting
摘 要：We propose a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of *** model incorporates both human-to-human and environment-to-human transmission pathways,and employs different transmission rates to represent the epidemiological characteristics at different time *** this model and publicly reported data,we perform a case study for Hamilton County,the fourth-most populous county in the state of Tennessee and a region that could represent the typical situation of COVID-19 in the United States(US).Our data fitting and simulation results show that the environment may play an important role in the transmission and spread of the *** addition,we numerically simulate a range of epidemic scenarios and make near-term forecasts on the development and trend of COVID-19 in Hamilton County.
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