A Mathematical Model of COVID-19: Analysis and Identification of Parameters for Better Decision Making
A Mathematical Model of COVID-19: Analysis and Identification of Parameters for Better Decision Making作者机构：Département de Mathématiques et Informatique Faculté des Sciences et Techniques Bamako Mali Institut Camille Jordan INSA Lyon France
出 版 物：《Applied Mathematics》 (应用数学（英文）)
年 卷 期：2022年第13卷第2期
页 面：205-214页
学科分类：02[经济学] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 020208[经济学-统计学] 1002[医学-临床医学] 07[理学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 0714[理学-统计学（可授理学、经济学学位）] 070103[理学-概率论与数理统计] 0701[理学-数学] 10[医学]
主 题：COVID-19 Mathematical Model R0 Spread Control Parameters Malian Data
摘 要：Since the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic, the world has been impressed by two things: The number of people infected and the number of deaths. Here, we propose a mathematical model of the spread of this disease, analyze this model mathematically and determine one or more dominant factors in the propagation of the COVID-19 epidemic. We consider the S-E-I-R epidemic model in the form of ordinary differential equations, in a population structured in susceptibles S, exposed E as caregivers, travelers and assistants at public events, infected I and recovered R classes. Here we decompose the recovered class into two classes: The deaths class D and the class of those who are truly healed H. After the model construction, we have calculated the basic reproduction number R0, which is a function of certain number of parameters like the size of the exposed class E. In our paper, the mathematical analysis, which consists in searching the equilibrium points and studying their stability, is done. The work identifies some parameters on which one can act to control the spread of the disease. The numerical simulations are done and they illustrate our theoretical analysis.
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