The Nonlinear Dynamical Model for the Evolution of Productivity

作     者：DI Zengru(Department of Physics, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 P.R.China)LI Maoling(Department of Safety Engineering, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing100026 P.R. China) 

出 版 物：《Systems Science and Systems Engineering》 (系统科学与系统工程学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：1998年第8卷第4期

页      面：445-456页

核心收录：

学科分类：0711[理学-系统科学] 12[管理学] 1201[管理学-管理科学与工程(可授管理学、工学学位)] 07[理学] 08[工学] 0811[工学-控制科学与工程] 081103[工学-系统工程] 

主　　题：nonlinear dynamic system economic growth numerical simulation 

摘      要：A nonlinear dynamic system model is used for the econometric analysis of economicgrowth. The model includes three factors of an average agent. That is production, consumption andthe ability to maintain them. The model is built up from the interactions among these factors. By themodel, the historical evolution of the economy of Belgium, France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdomand United States have been simulated at first. Tile errors of simulation are normally in the range of±6%(except Japan). The model also gives some oiller interesting results. such as short term cycles andlong wave in economic evolution, consumption controls growth, the growth of productivity will lead tothe reduction of working time and so on. The future growth till 2000 also forecasted by the model.