Modeling and prediction of daily gas concentration variation at a mining face based on the elliptic orbit model: A case study

作     者：Yang Zongchang Zhou Shaowu 

作者机构：School of Information and Electrical Engineering Hunan University of Science and Technology 

出 版 物：《International Journal of Mining Science and Technology》 (矿业科学技术学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2015年第25卷第6期

页      面：1045-1052页

核心收录：

学科分类：0819[工学-矿业工程] 081903[工学-安全技术及工程] 08[工学] 

基　　金：supported by the Scientific Research Fund of Hunan Provincial Science and Technology Department (No. 2013GK3090) the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 51374107 and 51577057) the Research Fund of Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation (No. 13JJ8014) 

主　　题：Mining faceGas concentration variationElliptic orbit modelEvaluationPrediction 

摘      要：Monitoring and analysis of daily gas concentrations at a mining face is a vital task on safety production and security management in the coal-mining industry. This study addresses modeling and prediction of daily gas concentration variations based on the elliptic orbit model. The model describes the hourly variation in daily gas concentration by mapping its time-series into the polar coordinates to create its elliptic orbit trace for further analysis. Experiments show workability of the proposed method that daily gas concentration variation at a mining face of one coal mine in China is well described by the elliptic orbit model. Result analysis and performance comparison of the proposed elliptic orbit model with the classical AR model on the same prediction tasks indicate potentiality of the proposed elliptic orbit model,which presents a vivid approach for modeling and forecasting daily gas concentration variations in an intuitive and concise way.