Spatiotemporal characteristics and trend assessment of Ms≥5.6 earthquakes in the Tianshan area of China based on co-occurrence analysis and commensurability

作     者：Wan Jia Yan Jun-Ping Liu Zi-Qiang Wang Xiao-Meng Zhang Yu-Feng Wang Cheng-Bo Wan Jia;Yan Jun-Ping;Liu Zi-Qiang;Wang Xiao-Meng;Zhang Yu-Feng;Wang Cheng-Bo

作者机构：School of Geography and TourismShaanxi Normal UniversityXi’an 710119China North Minzu UniversityYinchuanNingxia 750021China 

出 版 物：《Applied Geophysics》 (应用地球物理（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第18卷第3期

页      面：396-407,434页

核心收录：

学科分类：081801[工学-矿产普查与勘探] 081802[工学-地球探测与信息技术] 08[工学] 0818[工学-地质资源与地质工程] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Fund of China(grant number 41877519) 

主　　题：Tianshan area earthquake associative degree commensurability 

摘      要：Based on the complete seismic data of the Tianshan area in the past 118 years,the co-occurrence rate of earthquakes in different fault zones is calculated,the fault zone with the highest associative degree in the Tianshan area is determined as the research object,extracted the earthquake time series information of the strong associative fault zone and the commensurability method is used to obtain the commensurability expression,the year of strongest earthquake signal is calculated and predicted,then the butterfly structure diagram and commensurability structure system are *** the butterfly structure diagram and commensurability structure system to analyze the seismic spatiotemporal structure characteristics of the Tianshan area,judge the trend of future earthquakes,and predict the time of future *** results demonstrate that Ms≥5.6 earthquake signals are strong in 2020 and *** order to determine the location of future earthquakes,the historical epicenter migration law of the strongly correlated fault zone in the Tianshan area is *** is revealed that the epicenter distribution is symmetric in both the longitude and latitude *** the spatial distribution of epicenters,the five successive earthquakes in the strong associative fault zone in the Tianshan area present a pentagonal symmetrical structure in *** is judged that the next earthquake will migrate toward the ***,the sunspot has a strong seismic correlation with the strong associative fault zone in the Tianshan *** cally,on the 11-year cycle scale of sunspot activity,64.71% of earthquakes occurred in the fluctuation descending range;on the monthly scale of sunspot ***,it has been verified that the proposed disaster prediction method based on commensurability theory is scientifi c and has a broad application prospect.