Vaccine efficacy and SARS-CoV-2 control in California and *** the session 2020e2026:A modeling study

作     者：Md Shahriar Mahmud Md Kamrujjaman Md Mashih Ibn Yasin Adan Md Alamgir Hossain Md Mizanur Rahman Md Shahidul Islam Muhammad Mohebujjaman Md Mamun Molla 

作者机构：Department of Computer Science and EngineeringState University of BangladeshDhaka1205Bangladesh Department of MathematicsUniversity of DhakaDhaka1000Bangladesh Department of Mathematics and StatisticsUniversity of CalgaryCalgaryABCanada Computational Biology Research Lab(CBRL)Department of PharmacyJagannath UniversityDhaka1100Bangladesh Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced StudyHitotsubashi UniversityNaka KunitachiTokyo186-8601Japan Department of Mathematics and PhysicsTexas A&M International UniversityLaredoTX78041USA Department of Mathematics&PhysicsNorth South UniversityDhaka1229Bangladesh Center for Applied Scientific Computing(CASC)North South UniversityDhaka1229Bangladesh 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2022年第7卷第1期

页      面：62-81页

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：M.Kamrujjaman is grateful to the centennial research program,Dhaka University The research by M.Kamrujjaman was partially supported by a TWAS grant 2019_19-169 RG/MATHS/AS_I 

主　　题：Vaccine Model California Control measurement SARS-CoV-2 

摘      要：Background:Besides maintaining health precautions,vaccination has been the only prevention from SARS-CoV-2,though no clinically proved 100%effective vaccine has been developed till *** this stage,to withhold the debris of this pandemic-experts need to know the impact of the vaccine efficacy rates,the threshold level of vaccine effectiveness and how long this pandemic may extent with vaccines that have different efficacy *** this article,a mathematical model study has been done on the importance of vaccination and vaccine efficiency rate during an ongoing ***:We simulated a five compartment mathematical model to analyze the pandemic scenario in both California,and whole *** considered four vaccines,Pfizer(95%),Moderna(94%),AstraZeneca(79%),and Johnson&Johnson(72%),which are being used rigorously to control the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic,in addition with two special cases:a vaccine with 100%efficacy rate and no vaccine under ***-CoV-2 related data of California,and *** used in this ***:Both the infection and death rates are very high in *** model suggests that the pandemic situation in California will be under control in the last quartile of the year 2023 if vaccination program is continued with the Pfizer *** this time,six waves may happen from the beginning of the immunization where the case fatality and recovery rates will be 1.697%and 98.30%,***,according to the considered model,this period might be extended to the mid of 2024 when vaccines with lower efficacy rates are *** the other hand,the daily cases and deaths in the *** be under control at the end of 2026 with multiple *** the number of susceptible people will fall down to none in the beginning of 2027,there is less chance to stop the vaccination program if vaccinated with a vaccine other than a 100%effective vaccine or Pfizer,and at that case vaccination program must run till the mid of *** to this s