Impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers on pandemic policy outcomes

作     者：Weijie Pang Hassan Chehaitli T.R.Hurd 

作者机构：Mathematics&StatisticsMcMaster University1280 Main St.WestHamiltonOntarioL8S 4L8Canada 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2022年第7卷第1期

页      面：16-29页

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

主　　题：Infectious disease model COVID-19 Pre-symptomatic Non-pharmaceutical intervention SIR model 

摘      要：This paper provides a mathematical model that makes it clearly visible why the underestimation of r,the fraction of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers in the general population,may lead to a catastrophic reliance on the standard policy intervention that attempts to isolate all confirmed infectious *** SE(AþO)R model with infectives separated into asymptomatic and ordinary carriers,supplemented by a model of the data generation process,is calibrated to standard early pandemic datasets for two *** is shown that certain fundamental parameters,critically r,are unidentifiable with this data.A general analytical framework is presented that projects the impact of different types of policy *** is found that the lack of parameter identifiability implies that some,but not all,potential policy interventions can be correctly *** an example representing Italy in March 2020,a hypothetical optimal policy of isolating confirmed cases that aims to reduce the basic reproduction number R0 of the outbreak from 4.4 to 0.8 assuming r¼0,only achieves 3.8 if it turns out that r¼40%.