Assessment of the predictive capabilities of NIGTEC model over Nigeria during geomagnetic storms

作     者：Paul Obiakara Amaechi Ibifubara Humphrey David Adeyinka Adewoyin Paul Obiakara Amaechi;Ibifubara Humphrey;David Adeyinka Adewoyin

作者机构：Department of Physical SciencesChrisland UniversityOwodeAbeokutaOgun StateNigeria Department of PhysicsUniversity of LagosLagosNigeria 

出 版 物：《Geodesy and Geodynamics》 (大地测量与地球动力学（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第12卷第6期

页      面：413-423页

核心收录：

学科分类：081802[工学-地球探测与信息技术] 070801[理学-固体地球物理学] 07[理学] 08[工学] 081105[工学-导航、制导与控制] 0818[工学-地质资源与地质工程] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 0804[工学-仪器科学与技术] 0811[工学-控制科学与工程] 

基　　金：support from the NASA MO&DA program 

主　　题：Global navigation satellite system Total electron content Geomagnetic storm Nigerian Total Electron Content(NIGTEC) 

摘      要：The Nigerian Total Electron Content(NIGTEC)is a regional neural netwo rk-based model developed by the Nigerian Centre for Atmospheric Research to predict the Total Electron Content(TEC)at any location over *** addition of the disturbance storm time(Dst)index as one of NIGTEC’s input layer neurons raises a question of its accuracy during geomagnetic *** this paper,the capability of NIGTEC in predicting the variability of TEC during geomagnetic storms has been *** data predicted by NIGTEC is compared with those derived from Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)over Lagos(6.5°N,3.4°E)and Toro(10.1°N,9.120 E)during the intense storms in March 2012 and *** model’s predictive capability is evaluated in terms of Root Mean Square Error(RMSE).NIGTEC reproduced a fairly good storm time morphology in VTEC driven by the prompt penetration electric field and the increase in thermospheric O/***,it failed to predict the increase in TEC after the intense sudden impulse of 60 nT on 8 March *** it could not capture the changes in VTEC driven by the storm time equatorward neutral wind especially during 18:00-24:00 ***,the RMSEs were higher during this time window,and the highest RMSE value was obtained during the most intense storm in March 2012.