Large tropical cyclone track forecast errors of global numerical weather prediction models in western North Pacific basin

作     者：Chi Kit Tang Johnny C.L.Chan Munehiko Yamaguchi 

作者机构：School of Energy and EnvironmentCity University of Hong KongHong KongChina Meteorological Research InstituteJapan Meteorological AgencyJapan 

出 版 物：《Tropical Cyclone Research and Review》 (热带气旋研究与评论（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第10卷第3期

页      面：151-169页

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：supported by the Research Grants Council(RGC)of Hong Kong,General Research Fund(City U11332816) supported by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI Grant 26282111 and 18H01283 

主　　题：Consensus Numerical weather prediction Forecast error Tropical cyclones Track prediction TIGGE WGNE 

摘      要：Although tropical cyclone(TC)track forecast errors(TFEs)of operational warning centres have substantially decreased in recent decades,there are still many cases with large *** International Grand Global Ensemble(TIGGE)data are used to study the possible reasons for the large TFE cases and to compare the performance of different numerical weather prediction(NWP)***-four TCs in the western North Pacific during the period 2007-2014 with TFEs(+24 to+120 h)larger than the 75 th percentile of the annual error distribution(with a total of 93 cases)are *** categories of situations are found to be associated with large *** include the interaction of the outer structure of the TC with tropical weather systems,the intensity of the TC,the extension of the subtropical high(SH)and the interaction with the westerly *** crucial factor of each category attributed to the large TFE is *** the TIGGE model predictions,the models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the UK Met Office generally have a smaller *** performance of different models in different situations is discussed.