Decadal Seismicity before Great Earthquakes—Strike-Slip Faults and Plate Interiors: Major Asperities and Low-Coupling Zones

作     者：Lynn R. Sykes Lynn R. Sykes

作者机构：Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University Palisades New York USA 

出 版 物：《International Journal of Geosciences》 (地球科学国际期刊（英文）)

年 卷 期：2021年第12卷第9期

页      面：784-833页

学科分类：070801[理学-固体地球物理学] 07[理学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 

主　　题：Earthquakes Strike-Slip Faults Transform Faults Intraplate Prediction Plate Coupling Asperities 

摘      要：Decadal forerunning seismic activity is examined for very large, shallow earthquakes along strike-slip and intraplate faults of the world. It includes forerunning shocks of magnitude Mw ≥ 5.0 for 21 mainshocks of Mw 7.5 to 8.6 from 1989 to 2020. Much forerunning activity occurred at what are interpreted to be smaller asperities along the peripheries of the rupture zones of great mainshocks at transform faults and subduction zones. Several great asperities as ascertained from forerunning activity agree with the areas of high seismic slip as determined by others using geodetic, mapping of surface faulting, and finite-source seismic modeling. The zones of high slip in many great earthquakes were nearly quiescent beforehand and are identified as the sites of great asperities. Asperities are strong, well-coupled portions of plate interfaces. Different patterns of forerunning activity on time scales of up to 45 years are attributed to the sizes and spacing of asperities (or lack of). This permits at least some great asperities along transform faults to be mapped decades before they rupture in great shocks. Rupture zones of many great mainshocks along transform faults are bordered either along strike, at depth or regionally by zones of lower plate coupling including either fault creep forerunning activity, aftershocks and/or slow-slip events. Forerunning activity to transforms in continental areas is more widespread spatially than that adjacent to oceanic transforms. The parts of the San Andreas fault themselves that ruptured in great California earthquakes during 1812, 1857 and 1906 have been very quiet since 1920;moderate to large shocks have been concentrated on their peripheries. The intraplate shocks studied, however, e