Spotless days and geomagnetic index as the predictors of solar cycle 25

作     者：Dipali S.Burud Rajmal Jain Arun K.Awasthi Sneha Chaudhari Sushanta C.Tripathy Nat Gopalswamy Pramod Chamadia Subhash C.Kaushik Rajiv Vhatkar Dipali S.Burud;Rajmal Jain;Arun K.Awasthi;Sneha Chaudhari;Sushanta C.Tripathy;Nat Gopalswamy;Pramod Chamadia;Subhash C.Kaushik;Rajiv Vhatkar

作者机构：Department of PhysicsShivaji UniversityKolhapur 416004India Physical Research LaboratoryNavrangpura380009 Ahmedabad CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace EnvironmentDepartment of Geophysics and Planetary SciencesUniversity of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026China CAS Key Laboratory of Solar ActivityNational Astronomical ObservatoriesBeijing 100101China National Solar Observatory 3665 Discovery DriveBoulderCO 80303USA Goddard Space Flight CenterNASAGreenbeltMD 20771USA Department of PhysicsGovt.PG Autonomous CollegeSatnaM.P.485001India Department of PhysicsGovt.P.G.CollegeDatiyaM.P.475661India Sh.M.M.Patel Institute of Sciences and ResearchKadi Sarva VishwavidyalayaGandhinagar 382015India 

出 版 物：《Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics》 (天文和天体物理学研究（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第21卷第9期

页      面：21-28页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070401[理学-天体物理] 0704[理学-天文学] 

基　　金：funding support from NSFC-11950410498 KLSA-202010 grants 

主　　题：Sun:activity Sun:sunspots Sun:rotation methods:statistical 

摘      要：We study the sunspot activity in relation to spotless days(SLDs)during the descending phase of solar cycles 11-24 to predict the amplitude of sunspot cycle *** this purpose,in addition to SLD,we also consider the geomagnetic activity(aa index)during the descending phase of a given cycle.A very strong correlation of the SLD(0.68)and aa index(0.86)during the descending phase of a given cycle with the maximum amplitude of next solar cycle has been *** empirical relationship led us to deduce the amplitude of cycle 25 to be 99.13±14.97 and 104.23±17.35 using SLD and aa index,respectively as *** the predictors provide comparable amplitude for solar cycle 25 and reveal that solar cycle 25 will be weaker than cycle ***,we predict that the maximum of cycle 25 is likely to occur between February and March *** the aa index has been utilized extensively in the past,this work establishes SLDs as another potential candidate for predicting the characteristics of the next cycle.