The Extreme Mei-yu Season in 2020:Role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Cooperative Influence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans

作     者：Ping LIANG Zeng-Zhen HU Yihui DING Qiwen QIAN Ping LIANG;Zeng-Zhen HU;Yihui DING;Qiwen QIAN

作者机构：Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in ShanghaiShanghai Regional Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationShanghai200030China Climate Prediction CenterNCEP/NWS/NOAA5830 University Research CourtCollege ParkMD 20740USA National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第38卷第12期

页      面：2040-2054页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：This work was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan“Major Natural Disaster Monitoring,Warning and Prevention”(2017YFC1502301) the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(21ZR1457600) the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.41790471 and 41775047 China Three Gorges Corporation(Grant No.0704181) 

主　　题：2020 extreme mei-yu MJO Indian Ocean La Niña prediction and predictability 

摘      要：The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in eastern China during summer 2020 suffered the strongest mei-yu since *** this work,we comprehensively analyzed the mechanism of the extreme mei-yu season in 2020,with focuses on the combined effects of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)and the cooperative influence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans in 2020 and from a historical *** prediction and predictability of the extreme mei-yu are further investigated by assessing the performances of the climate model operational predictions and *** is noted that persistent MJO phases 1−2 during June−July 2020 played a crucial role for the extreme mei-yu by strengthening the western Pacific subtropical *** the development of La Niña conditions and sea surface temperature(SST)warming in the tropical Indian Ocean exerted important influences on the long-lived MJO phases 1−2 by slowing down the eastward propagation of the MJO and activating convection related to the MJO over the tropical Indian *** spatial distribution of the 2020 mei-yu can be qualitatively captured in model real-time forecasts with a one-month *** can be attributed to the contributions of both the tropical Indian Ocean warming and La Niña ***,the mei-yu rainfall amounts are seriously *** simulations forced with observed SST suggest that internal processes of the atmosphere play a more important role than boundary forcing(e.g.,SST)in the variability of mei-yu anomaly,implying a challenge in quantitatively predicting an extreme mei-yu season,like the one in 2020.