Impact of Temperature on Mortality in Three Major Chinese Cities

作     者：ZHANG Jing LI Tian Tian TAN Jian Guo HUANG Cun Rui KAN Hai Dong 

作者机构：School of Public HealthKey Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of EducationFudan University Institute of Environmental Health and Related Product SafetyChina Center for Disease Control and Prevention Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and HealthShanghai Meteorological InstituteSMB School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical InnovationQueensland University of Technology Research Institute for the Changing Global Environment and Fudan Tyndall CentreFudan University Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and PreventionFudan University 

出 版 物：《Biomedical and Environmental Sciences》 (生物医学与环境科学（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2014年第27卷第7期

页      面：485-494页

核心收录：

学科分类：0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100402[医学-劳动卫生与环境卫生学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：supported by the Gong-Yi Program of Ministry of Environmental Protection(201209008) the Open Funds of Key Lab of Climate and Health of Shanghai(QXJK201205) 

主　　题：Climate change Temperature Mortality Time-series 

摘      要：Objective To study the relation between temperature and mortality by estimating the temperature-related mortality in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Methods Data of daily mortality, weather and air pollution in the three cities were collected. A distributed lag nonlinear model was established and used in analyzing the effects of temperature on mortality. Current and future net temperature-related mortality was estimated. Results The association between temperature and mortality was J-shaped, with an increased death risk of both hot and cold temperature in these cities. The effects of cold temperature on health lasted longer than those of hot temperature. The projected temperature-related mortality increased with the decreased cold-related mortality. The mortality was higher in Guangzhou than in Beijing and Shanghai. Conclusion The impact of temperature on health varies in the 3 cities of China, which may have implications for climate policy making in China.