To move or stay?A cellular automata model to predict urban growth in coastal regions amidst rising sea levels

作     者：Siqin Wang Yan Liu Yongjiu Feng Zhenkun Lei 

作者机构：School of Earth and Environmental SciencesThe University of QueenslandSt LuciaAustralia Spatio-Temporal Analytics Research Laboratory(STAR Lab)The University of QueenslandSt LuciaAustralia College of Surveying and Geo-InformaticsTongji UniversityShanghaiPeople’s Republic of China College of Marine SciencesShanghai Ocean UniversityShanghaiPeople’s Republic of China 

出 版 物：《International Journal of Digital Earth》 (国际数字地球学报（英文）)

年 卷 期：2021年第14卷第9期

页      面：1213-1235页

核心收录：

学科分类：08[工学] 0813[工学-建筑学] 0814[工学-土木工程] 

基　　金：funded by an Australian Research Council Discovery Grant[DP170104235] 

主　　题：Climate change Cellular automata Sea level rise Urban growth Human settlement 

摘      要：Low-lying coastal cities are widely acknowledged as the most densely populated places of urban settlement;they are also more vulnerable to risks resulting from intensive land use and land cover change,human activities,global climate change,and the rising sea *** study aims to predict how urban growth is affected by sea level rise(SLR)in the Australian *** develop an urban cellular automata model incorporating urban planning policies as potential drivers or constraints of urban growth under different SLR scenarios and adaption *** on data capturing the socioeconomic and environmental factors in South East Queensland,Australia,our model is positioned to address one core research question:how does SLR affect future urban growth and human resettlement?Results show that urban growth in coastal regions varies depending on the extent to which the sea level rises and is affected by a combination of factors relating to urban planning and human adaptation *** study demonstrates the complexity of urban growth in coastal regions and the nuanced outcomes under different adaptation strategies in the context of rising sea levels.