Grappling with COVID-19 by imposing and lifting nonpharmaceutical interventions in Sri Lanka: A modeling perspective

作     者：Mahesh Jayaweera Chamath Dannangoda Dilum Dilshan Janith Dissanayake Hasini Perera Jagath Manatunge Buddhika Gunawardana 

作者机构：Department of Civil EngineeringUniversity of MoratuwaSri Lanka Department of Physics and AstronomyUniversity of Texas at Rio Grande ValleyBrownsvilleTX78520USA Department of Civil&Environmental EngineeringCollege of EngineeringSeoul National University1Gwanak-roGwanak-guSeoul08826Republic of Korea Department of Forestry and Environmental ScienceUniversity of Sri JayewardenepuraSri Lanka 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2021年第6卷第1期

页      面：820-831页

学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 10[医学] 

基　　金：This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public  commercial  or not-for-profit sectors 

主　　题：Contact tracing Isolation Lockdown Modeling Reproduction number 

摘      要：The imposition and lifting of non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs)to avert the COVID-19 pandemic have gained popularity worldwide and will continue to be enforced until herd immunity is *** developed a linear regression model to ascertain the nexus between the time-varying reproduction number averaged over a time window of six days(R_(ts))and seven NPIs:contact tracing,quarantine efforts,social distancing and health checks,hand hygiene,wearing of facemasks,lockdown and isolation,and health-related *** analysis suggests that the second wave that emerged in Sri Lanka in early October 2020 continued despite numerous *** model indicates that the most effective single NPI was lockdown and ***,the least effective individual NPIs were hand hygiene and wearing of *** model also demonstrates that to mitigate the second wave to a satisfactory level(R_(ts)1),the best single NPI was the contact tracing with stringent imposition(%of improvement of R_(ts) was 69.43 against the base case).By contrast,the best combination of two NPIs was the lockdown&isolation with health-related supports(%of improvement was 31.92 against the base case).As such,many health authorities worldwide can use this model to successfully strategize the imposition and lifting of NPIs for averting the COVID-19 pandemic.