African swine fever and meat prices fluctuation:An empirical study in China based on TVP-VAR model

作     者：LI Hui-shang HU Chen-pei LÜZheng LI Mei-qi GUO Xin-zhu LI Hui-shang;HU Chen-pei;Lü Zheng;LI Mei-qi;GUO Xin-zhu

作者机构：Agricultural Information Institute/Key Laboratory of Big Agri-Data of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural AffairsChinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBeijing 100081P.R.China International Statistical Information CenterNational Bureau of StatisticsBeijing 100826P.R.China School of Statistics and MathematicsCentral University of Finance and EconomicsBeijing 100081P.R.China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》 (农业科学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第20卷第8期

页      面：2289-2301页

核心收录：

学科分类：120301[管理学-农业经济管理] 12[管理学] 1203[管理学-农林经济管理] 07[理学] 070104[理学-应用数学] 0701[理学-数学] 

基　　金：This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72073131) the Central Public-Interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund,China(2020JKY025) the Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences(CAAS-ASTIP-2016-AII) 

主　　题：African swine fever meat prices dynamic transmission TVP-VAR model 

摘      要：African swine fever(ASF),a fatal disease outbroken in China in August 2018,has widely attracted social concern especially in the information *** occurrence of ASF led to an imbalance between supply and demand in pork and other meat *** a result,meat prices fluctuated greatly during the past year in *** measure ASF quantitatively,the internet public concern index about ASF was created using web crawler *** relationships between ASF and meat prices were analyzed based on time-varying parameter vector auto-regressive(TVP-VAR)*** results showed that there were some differences in the impact size,direction and duration of ASF on the prices of pork,chicken,beef and mutton,and the characteristics of time variability and heterogeneity were *** the same time,the impact of ASF on meat prices is not consistent with the trend and degree of *** impulse intensity is strongly correlated with the strength and duration of ASF,and it is generally weak in the early stage and much stronger in the middle and late *** results indicate that macro regulations,monitoring and early-warning system,standardizing production and circulation,and the public opinion monitoring and guidance about ASF should be given more attention in future to stabilize the market expectations and to promote a smooth functioning of the livestock markets.