Spatiotemporal patterns of the daily relative risk of COVID-19 in China

作     者：CHENG Changxiu JIANG Yifan SONG Changqing SHEN Shi WU Yunfeng ZHANG Tianyuan 程昌秀;蒋依凡;宋长青;沈石;吴云峰;张天媛

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource EcologyBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural DisasterBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Center for Geodata and AnalysisFaculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China National Tibetan Plateau Data CenterBeijing 100101China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 (地理学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第31卷第7期

页      面：1039-1058页

核心收录：

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：National Key Research and Development Plan of China,No.2019YFA0606901 The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP),No.2019QZKK0608 The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.XDA23100303 The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,No.2019NTST01 

主　　题：COVID-19 risk assessment spatiotemporal patterns z-order curve fractal 

摘      要：The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic continues to threaten lives and the economy around the *** the risk of COVID-19 can help in predicting spreading trends,identifying risk areas,and making public health *** this study,we proposed a comparative risk assessment method to estimate comprehensive and dynamic COVID-19 risks by considering the pandemic severity and the healthcare system pressure and then employing the z-order curve and fractal *** took the COVID-19 cases from January 19-March 10,2020 in China as our research *** results and analysis revealed that(1)the proposed method demonstrated its feasibility to assess and illustrate pandemic risk;(2)the temporal patterns of the daily relative risk indices of 31 provinces were clustered into four groups(high-value,fluctuating-increase,inverted U-shaped,and low-stable);(3)the spatial distribution of the relative pandemic risk indicated a significant circular pattern centered on Hubei Province;and(4)healthcare system capacity is the key to reducing relative pandemic risk,and cases imported from abroad should be given more *** methods and results of this study will provide a methodological basis and practical guidance for regional pandemic risk assessment and public health decision-making.