The Roles of Spatial Locations and Patterns of Initial Errors in the Uncertainties of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

作     者：CHEN Boyu MU Mu 陈博宇;穆穆

作者机构：National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid DynamicsInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao266071China National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid DynamicsInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and WaveInstitute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesQingdao266071China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2012年第29卷第1期

页      面：63-78页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos. 40830955) the China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. GYHY200906009) 

主　　题：sensitive area conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation CNOP uncertainty of initial conditions nonlinear development 

摘      要：In this study, a series of sensitivity experiments were performed for two tropical cyclones （TCs）, TC Longwang （2005） and TC Sinlaku （2008）, to explore the roles of locations and patterns of initial errors in uncertainties of TC forecasts. Specifically, three types of initial errors were generated and three types of sensitive areas were determined using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP）, first singular vector （FSV）, and composite singular vector （CSV） methods. Additionally, random initial errors in randomly selected areas were considered. Based on these four types of initial errors and areas, we designed and performed 16 experiments to investigate the impacts of locations and patterns of initial errors on the nonlinear developments of the errors, and to determine which type of initial errors and areas has the greatest impact on TC forecasts. Overall, results from the experiments indicate the following： （1） The impact of random errors introduced into the sensitive areas was greater than that of errors themselves fixed in the randomly selected areas. From the perspective of statisticul analysis, and by comparison, the impact of random errors introduced into the CNOP target area was greatest. （2） The initial errors with CNOP, CSV, or FSV patterns were likely to grow faster than random errors. （3） The initial errors with CNOP patterns in the CNOP target areas had the greatest impacts on the final verification forecasts.