Spatiotemporal patterns of burned areas,fire drivers,and fire probability across the equatorial Andes

作     者：Xavier ZAPATA-RiOS Carmen LOPEZ-FABARA Abigail NAVARRETE Sandra TORRES-PAGUAY Miguel FLORES Xavier ZAPATA-R(I)OS;Carmen LOPEZ-FABARA;Abigail NAVARRETE;Sandra TORRES-PAGUAY;Miguel FLORES

作者机构：Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringEscuela Politecnica NacionalLadron de Guevara E11-253P.O.Box 17-01-2759QuitoEcuador Center for Research and Water Resources Studies(CIERHI)Escuela Politecnica NacionalLadron de Guevara E11-253P.O.Box 17-01-2759QuitoEcuador Faculty of Agricultural SciencesUniversidad Central del EcuadorAv.UniversitariaP.O.Box 17-03-100QuitoEcuador ModelingOptimization and Inferential Statistics Group(MODES)Department of MathematicsEscuela Politecnica NacionalLadron de Guevara Ell-253P.O.Box 17-01-2759QuitoEcuador 

出 版 物：《Journal of Mountain Science》 (山地科学学报（英文）)

年 卷 期：2021年第18卷第4期

页      面：952-972页

核心收录：

学科分类：0709[理学-地质学] 0819[工学-矿业工程] 08[工学] 0303[法学-社会学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 0818[工学-地质资源与地质工程] 0837[工学-安全科学与工程] 0705[理学-地理学] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0838[工学-公安技术] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0813[工学-建筑学] 0704[理学-天文学] 0833[工学-城乡规划学] 0713[理学-生态学] 0834[工学-风景园林学（可授工学、农学学位）] 

基　　金：financial support provided by the Escuela Politécnica Nacional(National Polytechnic School)for the development of the project PIJ 17-05:“Los patrones climáticos globales y su influencia en la respuesta temporaly espacial deíndices espectrales de la vegetación del páramo en el Ecuador”(Global climate patterns and their influence on temporal and spatial responses of the Ecuadorian paramo vegetation’s spectral indices)。 

主　　题：MODIS MCD64A1 Spectral vegetation indices Pre-fire season NDVI and precipitation Remote sensing 

摘      要：Field-based fire studies in the equatorial Andes indicate that fires are strongly associated with biophysical and anthropogenic variables.However,fire controls and fire regimes at the regional scale remain undocumented.Therefore,this paper describes spatial and temporal burned-area patterns,identifies biophysical and anthropogenic fire drivers,and quantifies fire probability across 6°of latitude and 3°of longitude in the equatorial Andes.The spatial and temporal burned-area analysis was carried out based on 18 years(2001-2018)of the MCD64 A1 MODIS burned-area product.Climate,topography,vegetation,and anthropogenic variables were integrated in a logistic regression model to identify the significance of explanatory variables and determine fire occurrence probability.A total of 5779 fire events were registered during the 18 years of this study,located primarily along the western cordillera of the Andes and spreading from North to South.Eighty-eight percent of these fires took place within two fire hotspots located in the northwestern and southwestern corners of the study area.Ninety-nine percent occurred during the second part of the year,between June and December.The largest density of fires was primarily located on herbaceous vegetation and shrublands.Results show that mean monthly temperature,precipitation and NDVI during the prefire season,the location of land cover classes such as forest and agriculture,distance to roads and urban areas,slope,and aspect were the most important determinants of spatial and temporal fire distribution.The logistic regression model achieved a good accuracy in predicting fire probability(80%).Probability was higher in the southwestern and northern corners of the study area,and lower towards the north in the western and eastern piedmonts of the Andes.This analysis contributes to the understanding of fires in mountains within the tropics.The results here presented have the potential to contribute to fire management and control in the region.