CMIP6 Evaluation and Projection of Temperature and Precipitation over China

作     者：Xiaoling YANG Botao ZHOU Ying XU Zhenyu HAN Xiaoling YANG;Botao ZHOU;Ying XU;Zhenyu HAN

作者机构：Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological DisasterMinistry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第38卷第5期

页      面：817-830页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 

基　　金：the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0606301) the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42025502,41991285,42088101) 

主　　题：CMIP6 evaluation and projection temperature precipitation ensemble 

摘      要：This article evaluates the performance of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models in simulating temperature and precipitation over China through comparisons with gridded observation data for the period of 1995–2014,with a focus on spatial patterns and interannual *** evaluations show that the CMIP6 models perform well in reproducing the climatological spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation,with better performance for temperature than for *** interannual variability can also be reasonably captured by most models,however,poor performance is noted regarding the interannual variability of winter *** on the comprehensive performance for the above two factors,the“highest-rankedmodels are selected as an ensemble(BMME).The BMME outperforms the ensemble of all models(AMME)in simulating annual and winter temperature and precipitation,particularly for those subregions with complex terrain but it shows little improvement for summer temperature and *** AMME and BMME projections indicate annual increases for both temperature and precipitation across China by the end of the 21st century,with larger increases under the scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5/Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5(SSP585)than under scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2/Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(SSP245).The greatest increases of annual temperature are projected for higher latitudes and higher elevations and the largest percentage-based increases in annual precipitation are projected to occur in northern and western China,especially under ***,the BMME,which generally performs better in these regions,projects lower changes in annual temperature and larger variations in annual precipitation when compared to the AMME projections.