Vulnerability assessment of crop production to climate change across Northwest China during 1995–2014

作     者：LIANG You-jia LIU Li-jun LIANG You-jia;LIU Li-jun

作者机构：School of Resources and Environmental EngineeringWuhan University of TechnologyWuhan 430070China State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess PlateauInstitute of Water and Soil ConservationChinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water ResourcesYangling 712100China School of NavigationWuhan University of TechnologyWuhan430063China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Mountain Science》 (山地科学学报（英文）)

年 卷 期：2021年第18卷第3期

页      面：683-693页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 090101[农学-作物栽培学与耕作学] 09[农学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0901[农学-作物学] 

基　　金：funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41601184) the State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau(A314021402-202110) 

主　　题：Crop production Vulnerability Adaptive capacity GIS Spatial mapping 

摘      要：Crop production vulnerability to climate change in Northwest China depends upon multiple socio-ecological *** regarding the specific indicators and methods suitable for assessing crop production vulnerability is limited that address spatiotemporal variations across large and diverse *** propose an integrated assessment framework to quantify the vulnerability of crop production derived from crop yield sensitivity,exposure,and adaptive consequences across 338 counties in Northwest China during 1995–*** on these indices were generated using climatic and socioeconomic data with spatial mapping *** clusters of crop production vulnerability were then identified by a k-means cluster method to assess the heterogeneity of vulnerability at a regional *** show that the vulnerability of crop production in 338 counties varies significantly in both geographical and socioeconomic aspects,specifically,vulnerability indicators are generally higher in Minhe,Menyuan,Hualong,and Ledu,and Xayar had the lowest value of *** indicates that adaptation strategies for regional crop production need to focus on several levels,from the improvement of adaptive ability to crop yield fluctuation by promoting irrigation agriculture and optimizing limited water resources in typical arid areas,to agriculture-related financial policies incentivizing the capital investment and technology upgrade of crop production on traditional farming *** study provides convincing evidence that the factors related to socioeconomic policies are particularly alarming when a crop’s risk is compared to precipitation *** recommend these findings be used to facilitate regional agriculture planning to reduce crop production vulnerability and ensure sustainable food security in specific regions.