Application of Markovian models for non-ergodic and non-stationary earthquake times series for the identification of seismic patterns and future projections

作     者：Hakan Karaca Hakan Karaca

作者机构：Department of ArchitectureOmer Halisdemir UniversityNigde 51240Turkey 

出 版 物：《Earthquake Science》 (地震学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第33卷第2期

页      面：98-106页

学科分类：0709[理学-地质学] 0819[工学-矿业工程] 07[理学] 070801[理学-固体地球物理学] 0707[理学-海洋科学] 0818[工学-地质资源与地质工程] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0813[工学-建筑学] 0814[工学-土木工程] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 0704[理学-天文学] 

主　　题：spatial pattern Markov chain spatially smoothed seismicity seismic activity rate 

摘      要：The current earthquake forecast algorithms are not free of shortcomings due to inherent ***,the requirement of stationarity in the evaluation of earthquake time series as a prerequisite,significantly limits the use of forecast algorithms to areas where stationary data is not *** shortcoming of forecast algorithms is the ergodicity assumption,which states that certain characteristics of seismicity are spatially *** this study,a new earthquake forecast approach is introduced for the locations where stationary data are not *** this purpose,the spatial activity rate density for each spatial unit is evaluated as a parameter of a Markov *** temporal pattern is identified by setting the states at certain spatial activity rate *** using the transition patterns between the states,1-and 5-year forecasts were *** method is suggested as an alternative and complementary to the existing methods by proposing a solution to the issues of ergodicity and stationarity assumptions at the same time.