The influence of anthropogenic climate change on wet and dry summers in Europe

作     者：Nikolaos Christidis Peter A.Stott Nikolaos Christidis;Peter A.Stott

作者机构：Met Office Hadley CentreExeterEX13 PBUK 

出 版 物：《Science Bulletin》 (科学通报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第66卷第8期

页      面：813-823,M0004页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by the Department for Business,Energy&Industrial Strategy(BEIS) the Department for Environment,Food&Rural Affairs(Defra) supported by the European Prototype demonstrator for the Harmonisation and Evaluation of Methodologies for attribution of extreme weather Events(EUPHEME)project,which is part of the European Research Area for Climate Services(ERA4CS),a European Research Area Network(ERA-NET)initiated by the Joint Programming Initiative‘‘Connecting Climate Knowledge for Europe”(JPI Climate)and co-funded by the European Union(690462) 

主　　题：Attribution Hydrological extremes Anthropogenic climate change European droughts European floods 

摘      要：Understanding the role of anthropogenic forcings in regional hydrological changes can help communities plan their adaptation in an informed *** we apply attribution research methods to investigate the effect of human influence on historical trends in wet and dry summers and changes in the likelihood of extreme events in *** employ an ensemble of new climate models and compare experiments with and without the effect of human influence to assess the anthropogenic *** changes are also analysed with projections to year *** employ two drought indices defined relative to the pre-industrial climate:one driven by changes in rainfall only and one that also includes the effect of temperature via changes in potential *** indices suggest significant changes in European summers have already emerged above variability and are expected to intensify in the future,leading to widespread dryer conditions which are more extreme in the *** only the effect of rainfall is considered,there is a distinct contrast between a shift towards wetter conditions in the north and dryer in the south of the continent,as well as an overall increase in ***,when the effect of warming is also included,it largely masks the wet trends in the north,resulting in increasingly drier summers across most of the *** index trends are already detected in the observations,while models suggest that what were extremely dry conditions in the pre-industrial climate will become normal in the south by the end of the century.