Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs

作     者：Salihu Sabiu Musa Sania Qureshi Shi Zhao Abdullahi Yusuf Umar Tasiu Mustapha Daihai He 

作者机构：Department of Applied MathematicsHong Kong Polytechnic UniversityHong KongChina Department of MathematicsKano University of Science and TechnologyWudilNigeria Department of Basic Sciences and Related StudiesMehran University of Engr.&Tech.JamshoroPakistan JC School of Public Health and Primary CareChinese University of Hong KongHong KongChina Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong KongShenzhenChina Department of Computer EngineeringBiruni UniversityIstanbulTurkey Department of MathematicsScience FacultyFederal University DutseJigawaNigeria Department of MathematicsNear East University TRNCMersin 10Turkey 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2021年第6卷第1期

页      面：448-460页

学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 10[医学] 

基　　金：Mehran University of Engineering and Technology  MUET 

主　　题：COVID-19 Epidemic Mathematical modeling Reproduction number Public awareness 

摘      要：Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-COV-2)is a novel virus that emerged in China in late 2019 and caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19).The epidemic has largely been controlled in China since March 2020,but continues to inflict severe public health and socioeconomic burden in other parts of the *** of the major reasons for China’s success for the fight against the epidemic is the effectiveness of its health care system and enlightenment(awareness)programs which play a vital role in the control of the COVID-19 *** is currently witnessing a rapid increase of the epidemic likely due to its unsatisfactory health care system and inadequate awareness *** this paper,we propose a mathematical model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in *** model incorporates awareness programs and different hospitalization strategies for mild and severe cases,to assess the effect of public awareness on the dynamics of COVID-19 *** fit the model to the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Nigeria from 29 March to 12 June *** find that the epidemic could increase if awareness programs are not properly *** presumed that the effect of awareness programs could be ***,our results suggest that the awareness programs and timely hospitalization of active cases are essential tools for effective control and mitigation of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria and ***,we perform sensitive analysis to point out the key parameters that should be considered to effectively control the epidemic.