Hospitalization dynamics during the first COVID-19 pandemic wave: SIR modelling compared to Belgium, France, Italy, Switzerland and New York City data

作     者：Gregory Kozyreff 

作者机构：Optique Nonlineaire TheoriqueUniversite libre de Bruxelles(U.L.B.)CP 231Belgium 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2021年第6卷第1期

页      面：398-404页

学科分类：1204[管理学-公共管理] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 0701[理学-数学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：Belgian Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS, FNRS 

主　　题：COVID-19 modelling Hospitalization Dynamics Pandemic Belgium SIR 

摘      要：Using the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemiological model,an analytical formula is derived for the number of beds occupied by Covid-19 *** analytical curve is fitted to data in Belgium,France,New York City and Switzerland,with a correlation coefficient exceeding 98.8%,suggesting that finer models are unnecessary with such macroscopic *** fitting is used to extract estimates of the doubling time in the ascending phase of the epidemic,the mean recovery time and,for those who require medical intervention,the mean hospitalization *** variations can be observed among different outbreaks.