A metapopulation network model for the spreading of SARSCoV-2: Case study for Ireland

作     者：Rory Humphries Mary Spillane Kieran Mulchrone Sebastian Wieczorek Micheal O’Riordain Philipp Hövel 

作者机构：School of Mathematical SciencesUniversity College CorkWestern RoadCorkT12XF64Ireland Department of SurgeryMercy University HospitalGrenville PlaceCorkT12WE28Ireland 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2021年第6卷第1期

页      面：420-437页

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：This article is the results of the research project funded by the Health Research Board in the framework of the COVID19 rapid response programme(grant number:COV19-2020-117) 

主　　题：Compartmental model SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus Non-pharmaceutical containment strategies Network model 

摘      要：We present preliminary results on an all-Ireland network modelling approach to simulate the spreading the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2(SARS-CoV-2),commonly known as the *** the model,nodes correspond to locations or communities that are connected by links indicating travel and commuting between different *** this proposed modelling framework can be applied on all levels of spatial granularity and different countries,we consider Ireland as a case *** network comprises 3440 electoral divisions(EDs)of the Republic of Ireland and 890 superoutput areas(SOAs)for Northern Ireland,which corresponds to local administrative units below the NUTS 3 *** local dynamics within each node follows a phenomenological SIRX compartmental model including classes of Susceptibles,Infected,Recovered and Quarantined(X)inspired from Science 368,742(2020).For better comparison to empirical data,we extended that model by a class of *** consider various scenarios including the 5-phase roadmap for *** addition,as proof of concept,we investigate the effect of dynamic interventions that aim to keep the number of infected below a given *** is achieved by dynamically adjusting containment measures on a national scale,which could also be implemented at a regional(county)or local(ED/SOA)*** find that-in principle-dynamic interventions are capable to limit the impact of future waves of outbreaks,but on the downside,in the absence of a vaccine,such a strategy can last several years until herd immunity is reached.