Development cost prediction of general aviation aircraft using combined estimation technique

作     者：Xiaonan CHEN Jun HUANG Mingxu YI Xiaonan CHEN;Jun HUANG;Mingxu YI

作者机构：School of Aeronautic Science and EngineeringBeihang UniversityBeijing 100083China 

出 版 物：《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 (中国航空学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第34卷第4期

页      面：32-41页

核心收录：

学科分类：08[工学] 082503[工学-航空宇航制造工程] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 

基　　金：the National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents,Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China(No.2017M610740) the supports from Hefei General Aviation Research Institute,Beihang University 

主　　题：Combined prediction method General aviation aircraft Optimal weight Shortest ideal point method 

摘      要：Obtaining accurate development cost estimation results of general aviation aircraft is crucial for companies to adopt the best strategy in the development *** address this problem,this paper proposes a combination of three commonly used single prediction *** optimal weight values of the three single prediction methods are determined by utilizing the shortest ideal point *** cost datasets collected from literature are utilized for fitting and testing the combined prediction method,and the weight coefficients of the three individual prediction methods are calculated as 0.6859,0.0035 and 0.3106,*** results of this study indicate that the developed method has better fitting and estimation accuracy than that of the three individual methods,with average fitting and predicting error values of 2.60%and 6.43%,***,the cost data of military and civil aircraft development from literature are collected for *** results further confirm that the proposed method is not only superior to the single prediction methods in terms of high precision but has wider *** importantly,this research can provide important reference for general aviation aircraft companies in term of product cost planning and corporate sales strategies.