Correlation of subway turnstile entries and COVID-19 incidence and deaths in New York City

作     者：Sina Fathi-Kazerooni Roberto Rojas-Cessa Ziqian Dong Vatcharapan Umpaichitra 

作者机构：Department of Electrical and Computer EngineeringNewark College of EngineeringNew Jersey Institute of TechnologyNewarkNJ07102USA Department of Electrical and Computer EngineeringCollege of Engineering and Computing SciencesNew York Institute of TechnologyNew YorkNY10023USA Department of PediatricsSUNY Downstate Health Sciences UniversityBrooklynNY11203USA 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2021年第6卷第1期

页      面：183-194页

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

主　　题：COVID-19 Time-series analysis New York city subway SARS-CoV-2 Long short-term memory ARIMA 

摘      要：In this paper,we show a strong correlation between turnstile entries data of the New York City(NYC)subway provided by NYC Metropolitan Transport Authority and COVID-19 deaths and cases reported by the NYC Department of Health from March to May *** correlation is obtained through linear regression and confirmed by the prediction of the number of deaths by a Long Short-Term Memory neural *** correlation is more significant after considering incubation and symptomatic phases of this disease as experienced by people who died from *** extend the analysis to each individual NYC *** also estimate the dates when the number of COVID-19 deaths and cases would approach zero by using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model on the reported deaths and *** also backward forecast the dates when the first cases and deaths might have occurred.