Projected Shifts in Kppen Climate Zones over China and Their Temporal Evolution in CMIP5 Multi-Model Simulations

作     者：Duo CHAN Qigang WU Guixiang JIANG Xianglin DAI 

作者机构：School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2016年第33卷第3期

页      面：283-293页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 

基　　金：supported by the National Key Scientific Research Plan of China(Grant No.2012CB956002) the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41075052) 

主　　题：Koppen-Geiger climate classification China climate change CMIP5. RCP scenarios 

摘      要：Previous studies have examined the projected climate types in China by 2100. This study identified the emergence time of climate shifts at a 1 o scale over China from 1990 to 2100 and investigated the temporal evolution of Koppen-Geiger climate classifications computed from CMIP5 multi-model outputs. Climate shifts were detected in transition regions （7%-8% of China＇s land area） by 2010, including rapid replacement of mixed forest （Dwb） by deciduous forest （Dwa） over Northeast China, strong shrinkage of alpine climate type （ET） on the Tibetan Plateau, weak northward expansion of subtropical winter- dry climate （Cwa） over Southeast China, and contraction of oceanic climate （Cwb） in Southwest China. Under all future RCP （Representative Concentration Pathway） scenarios, the reduction of Dwb in Northeast China and ET on the Tibetan Plateau was projected to accelerate substantially during 2010-30, and half of the total area occupied by ET in 1990 was projected to be redistributed by 2040. Under the most severe scenario （RCP8.5）, sub-polar continental winter dry climate over Northeast China would disappear by 2040-50, ET on the Tibetan Plateau would disappear by 2070, and the climate types in 35.9% and 50.8% of China＇s land area would change by 2050 and 2100, respectively. The results presented in this paper indicate imperative impacts of anthropogenic climate change on China＇s ecoregions in future decades.