The Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Based on Different Parameterization Schemes of Planetary Boundary Layer

作     者：WANG Chen-xi YING Ming 王晨稀;应明

作者机构：Shanghai Typhoon InstituteCMAShanghai 200030 China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 (热带气象学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第26卷第4期

页      面：377-389页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China(41575108,41475082) Scientific Research Program of Shanghai Science and Technology Commission(19dz1200101) 

主　　题：planetary boundary layer uncertainty tropical cyclone intensity structure 

摘      要：Based on different parameterization schemes of planetary boundary layer (PBL), the uncertainty of intensity and structure of the Super-strong Typhoon Rammasun (1409) is investigated using the WRF model (v3.4) with six PBL parameterization schemes. Results indicate that PBL uncertainty leads to the uncertainty in tropical cyclone (TC)prediction, which increases with forecast time. The uncertainty in TC prediction is mainly reflected in the uncertainty in TC intensity, with significant differences in the TC intensity forecasts using various PBL schemes. The uncertainty in TC prediction is also reflected in the uncertainty in TC structures. Greater intensity is accompanied by smaller vortex width,tighter vortex structure, stronger wind in the near-surface layer and middle and lower troposphere, stronger inflow(outflow) wind at the lower (upper) levels, stronger vertical upward wind, smaller thickness of the eye wall, smaller outward extension of the eye wall, and warmer warm core at the upper levels of eye. PBL height, surface upward heat flux and water vapor flux are important factors that cause the uncertainty in TC intensity and structure. The more surface upward heat flux and water vapor flux and the lower PBL height, the faster TC development and the stronger TC intensity.