A primer on using mathematics to understand COVID-19 dynamics: Modeling, analysis and simulations

作     者：Abba B.Gumel Enahoro A.Iboi Calistus N.Ngonghala Elamin H.Elbasha 

作者机构：School of Mathematical and Statistical SciencesArizona State UniversityTempeAZ85287USA Department of MathematicsSpelman CollegeAtlantaGA30314USA Department of MathematicsUniversity of FloridaGainesvilleFL32611USA Emerging Pathogens InstituteUniversity of FloridaGainesvilleFL32610USA Department of Mathematics and Applied MathematicsUniversity of PretoriaPretoria0002South Africa Merck&Co.Inc.2000 Galloping Hill RoadKenilworthNJ07033USA 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2021年第6卷第1期

页      面：148-168页

学科分类：1204[管理学-公共管理] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 07[理学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 0701[理学-数学] 10[医学] 070101[理学-基础数学] 

基　　金：One of the authors(ABG)acknowledge the support,in part,of the Simons Foundation(Award#585022) the National Science Foundation(Award#1917512) CNN acknowledges the support of the Simons Foundation(Award#627346) 

主　　题：COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Non-pharmaceutical interventions Face mask Reproduction number 

摘      要：The novel coronavirus(COVID-19)pandemic that emerged from Wuhan city in December 2019 overwhelmed health systems and paralyzed economies around the *** became the most important public health challenge facing mankind since the 1918 Spanish flu *** theoretical and empirical approaches have been designed and used to gain insight into the transmission dynamics and control of the *** study presents a primer for formulating,analysing and simulating mathematical models for understanding the dynamics of ***,we introduce simple compartmental,Kermack-McKendrick-type epidemic models with homogeneously-and heterogeneously-mixed populations,an endemic model for assessing the potential population-level impact of a hypothetical COVID-19 *** illustrate how some basic non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 can be incorporated into the epidemic model.A brief overview of other kinds of models that have been used to study the dynamics of COVID-19,such as agent-based,network and statistical models,is also *** extensions of the basic model,as well as open challenges associated with the formulation and theoretical analysis of models for COVID-19 dynamics,are suggested.